• Sir Baller

1 Month of Trend Analysis and Price Predictions in Review

This newsletter we are going to look at all my posts since April 20th (my first published Bitcoin trend analysis) and see what has continued true vs where I was blatantly wrong. For each section I will show an image from my original posts and compare with what we see today.

April 20, 2021 - 2021 Bitcoin Price Trends

Chart published in newsletter:

What has occurred since publication:

This is a short term projection that was pretty accurate. Not right on the money, but I call this a win. The key point I was trying to make in this newsletter was the middle ABC section (Down, Up, Down) of the Elliott wave before the next larger price increase. Not only was that true, but BTC hit very close to where I predicted on the Fibonacci Retracement for the final down (C) point.

April 22, 2021 - April 2021 Updated Bitcoin Price Analysis

Chart published in newsletter:

What has occurred since publication:

This is definitely a win. On a 4 hr candle BTC chart the triple bottom came through just as I was expecting. However, I called the second bottom too early by about 1 day and prices continued dropping. The triple bottom came through in April and we are seeing an early May dip with 2 bottoms so far. I was hoping to see prices increase until May 28th for options expirations, but this makes me think we may see an small up then back down cycle to hit the 3rd bottom before prices recover into the mid 50 (I am expecting BTC to be approximately $55k for May 28th-more on that later).

April 24th 2021 - Effects of Options on Bitcoin Prices and May 2021 Price Prediction

Chart published in newsletter:

What has occurred since publication:

BTC hit peak price Friday May 7th and bounced up and down through May 10th before finally falling from its peak price. Even though Bitcoin price stayed relatively steady between Friday and Monday, altcoin prices dipped quite a bit, diminishing altcoin gains after May 7th. At this time we had not made any specific Bitcoin price predictions, but we insinuated that Bitcoin would reach another all time high price. This was incorrect.

This article's focus was that month end options expirations are controlling BTC prices on the expiry dates (last Friday of every month. The data for April 30th backs up this hypothesis. We predicted BTC price would be approximately $54,000 because it was the "Max Pain Price", the price where the maximum number of Bitcoin options contract buyers would lose their money. At expiration day and time (April 30th, 08:00 UTC), BTC price was approximately $54,500.

April 28th, 2021 - 2021 Fibonacci Channel + May Predictions

Chart published in newsletter:

What has occurred since publication:

BTC did not get back up to the Fibonacci Channel 1.0 level. It only reached just above 0.5 and dipped earlier than expected (May 10th instead of May 14th). The price dropped straight to the 0 level, stayed there for approximately 3 days and then dropped below 0 crushing a major resistance level.

There were several outside factors negatively effecting BTC price. The first is a wave of fear due to an imminent rise in inflation. The inflation is a direct result of two primary factors. The first is the USA quickly expanding the supply of dollars in circulation to cover stimulus bills, and the second being the decrease in available goods due to people being out of work and not producing them, thus upsetting the supply and demand balance. The second factor that negatively impacted the price was on April 12th, the day BTC price moved from the 0.382 to the 0 level of the Fibonacci channel. On this day Elon Musk announced that Tesla would no longer accept Bitcoin as payment.

While outside influences negatively impacted the price in ways that I could not foresee, this is nevertheless not a win.

What lies ahead

This review of price trend analysis and predictions was long overdue. What is also overdue is an updated analysis taking into account the trend reversal that has occurred. I still believe in the month end options expiry dates being strong data points for where the price should be. Currently May 28th has a max pain price of $55,000 and June 25th has a max pain price of $48,000. Several bearish indicators lead me to believe that we will see a considerable price decline in early to mid June before coming back up to the $48,000 level.

In the next newsletter I will provide more detail and charts defending my reasoning for what was stated in the preceding paragraph, but I wanted to let people know what my expectations are. I will likely be recommending taking profits between May 28th and May 31st and then holding cash until the next big dip.


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