2021 Bitcoin Price Trends
When it comes to Bitcoin and cryptocurrency, volatility is a keyword that always comes to mind. I believe the high volatility has scared many wealthy investors, and there are many who desire to decrease crypto volatility in order to get their money in the pot. Those people are failing miserably!
This weekend saw a massive crash in bitcoin prices and I decided to delve into some price analyses from what we've seen in 2021. So far, in just under 4 months we have seen bitcoin hit 4 all time high (ATH) price points. Each of these price points led to a substantial correction before venturing to the next ATH.
Upon closer inspection, when looking at a day chart of 2021, the Elliott Wave Theory can be interpreted on the uptrends with a little creativity, but it is blatantly apparent on the downtrends in between ATH prices. For those unfamiliar with the Elliott Wave Theory, it is a pattern of ups and downs that are in 5/3/5 cycles. For example, the image below shows i, ii, iii, iv, v as up, down, up, down, up and then a, b, c as down, up, down. Not only is each small set a 5/3/5 cycle, but the entire chart is the first 5 cycle in a larger 5/3/5 Elliott Wave.
Back to Bitcoin prices, the down (3) cycle of the Elliott Wave is quite evident when viewing prices on a day chart. This part of the cycle is marked with red and green arrows below.
The values from the past cycles this year gives us a preview to where Bitcoin is going in coming days. After this weekend's massive dip, should we expect an immediate rise in price or will it fall back down? To determine this we need to find the values of all high and low price points within the middle part of the Elliott Wave cycle.
Below is an image with past price points marked and a prediction for the rest of the cycle. In addition, this data is tabulated in a table below.
The average A, B, C (down, up, down) values are -22.1%, 20.7%, and -20.9%. My rough estimate for the rest of this cycle is Bitcoin hitting $59,000 on or around 4/21 and dropping back down to $49,000 on or around 4/28. After this drop we will hopefully jump back into an uptrend to reach a new ATH.
Next, I decided to throw in some Fibanacci retracement for the hell of it (I was bored) and I made slight adjustments to my initial estimates:
The price predictions in the chart above do not differ drastically with the previous predictions, but they may be more accurate. I did notice that B of previous ABCs tended to move up 2 Fibanacci retracement levels and my prediction has it moving 3. In addition, my price prediction at C is lower than the C on March 25th while no other low price at C is lower than the previous cycle. I attribute this to the current ATH being close to the previous ATH and A being larger and dropping beneath the price point of A in the previous cycle.