Bitcoin: 2017 vs Current Bull Runs
Everyone loves to compare crypto bull runs! It's almost a pastime when it comes to crypto trading, like playing the impossible to win games at carnival stands even though you know there's a high probability they're fixed. Akin D. Grace's To Bear or Not to Bear had left me thinking more about the specifics of the previous bull run so I decided to create charts for comparison.
Bitcoin bull runs have historically occurred after a "halving event", a date when the reward for mining Bitcoin transactions is cut in half. Mining Bitcoin is the term used for verifying transactions, essentially ensuring that a person is not spending Bitcoin in two places at once and that the person paying with Bitcoin owned the Bitcoin in the first place. The halving events occur after every 210,000 blocks are mined, or roughly every 4 years. This event cuts Bitcoin's inflation rate in half and results in many miners stopping mining due to it becoming unprofitable.
The second Bitcoin halving occurred on July 9th, 2016 and led to a 501 day bull run that started 24 days after the halving date. The third Bitcoin halving occurred on May 11th, 2020, 375 days ago. Below are two charts detailing the bull run cycles with green and red highlighted sections representing price gains and losses that lasted a minimum of 7 days:
We are currently 375 days into the 3rd halving bull run. This date is marked as a vertical blue line on the 2nd halving bull run chart. In 2017, 3 days prior to the 375 day mark was the day Bitcoin prices began rising out of the largest slump of the cycle, a 41.4% price correction. For the current bull run, 2 days ago was the lowest price point after a 49.6% price correction. If the current bull run emulates the prior bull run, we have 2 large uptrend cycles left and one smaller downtrend cycle in between.
Bitcoin's 2nd bull run lasted 501 days and ended 525 days after the 2nd Halving Event. If the current bull run lasts 501 days, it will end on September 24th 2021 and if it ends 525 days after the 3rd Halving Event, it will end on October 18, 2021. I am planning on being very careful towards the end of summer. I know I won't sell at the exact peak of the market. I also know that when prices crash, they crash hard and fast. I would prefer to be out mid August to early September and miss 2 weeks of the bull run than not cash out until 2 weeks into the bear market. We are going to be watching price trends closely and preparing ourselves for the upcoming bear market. Join us on our Telegram or Discord pages if you want to be part of the conversation!
I believe many institutional investors are looking for entry points into cryptocurrency and many are likely waiting until we are well within the inevitable bear cycle that occurs once this bull run completes. The mass media will once again revel in telling us that Bitcoin is dead and we should all go about our days heedless of the ponzi scheme that is cryptocurrency. During this time their puppet masters will be buying crypto at bargain barrel rates and waiting until the next bull run. In 2024 after the 4th Halving Event, the media will be praising crypto as the greatest invention since the wheel. They will pretend like they always thought that. George Orwell's 1984 has never been a better blueprint to society as it is today.